Geology, Geological Engineering - Interdependence of Economic and Hydrologic Criteria in Planning Water Resources Development, The

Hydrologic and economic criteria figure in many obvious ways in water resources development, but they are rarely linked quantitatively, and most of the applications are pertinent only to the case in point. In the preparation of a regional plan for the massive program of groundwater development in the Punjab, situations have arisen where the choice among two or more alternatives was made by analyzing the economic implications of critical hydrologic parameters. Two of these situations which are of more or less general interest are described herein. The first involves basic development policy, i.e., the question of whether groundwater development should be based on the demand of the economy, or the conservation concept of safe yield. The analysis demonstrated that mining of groundwater is clearly indicated for areas where alternative supplies are unavailable. The second problem involves integrating hydrologic data into an economic model to determine optimum well design. From an analysis of all pertinent factors, a simple nomograph was derived for determining well specifications on site during construction. The nomograph can be modified for use in any alluvial terrain. In the Northern Zone of the Indus Plains —the region known as the Punjab- Pakistan is proceeding with integrated development of water and land resources on a scale never before contemplated. The heart of the development plan is a massive program of groundwater development to supplement canal irrigation supplies and to provide drainage relief to the irrigated lands. By the close of 1966 about 2500 high-capacity wells were in operation and furnishing the water supply and drainage requirements for nearly two million irrigated acres. The development plan calls for the construction of a total of nearly 30,000 wells with an aggregate capacity of 120,000 cfs by 1980. This is part of an integrated program eventually affecting over 20 million acres of irrigated lands. [This development program is administered by the West Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) for which the firm of Tipton and Kalm-bach, Inc. serves as regional planning consultant for the Northern Zone. The material presented herein is derived from planning studies which have been made in connection with the preparation of a regional development plan for the Northern zone.] Pakistan is proceeding with this large-scale development of land and water resources at a time when she is at the threshold of an almost calamitous population growth. Furthermore, she is attempting this development at a time when most of her usable land is already occupied and her food demands exceed current production. Here in the Northern Zone is one of the largest continuous areas of irrigated land in the world, easily irrigated, with a warm, dry climate and ample potential supplies of surface water and groundwater. Except for an abundance of land and labor, other primary resources are lacking or in very limited supply. The agriculture sector so dominates the economy that only by means of an effective development of the agricultural resources can other sectors grow and contribute to a viable economy. Because of inadequate irrigation, farming here has not effectively participated in the twentieth century revolution in agriculture, and only by means of massive development of potential supplies can Pakistan catch up. Capital for any kind of mass development must come from the outside. But the overriding restraint to development of the land and labor resources is the availability of water. ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT The decision-making process in planning regional development becomes increasingly complex as the various sectors of the economy become more highly developed. Where, as in this case, one sector dominates the economy and its development can be considered the key to development of other sectors, the decision-making process is simplified and it is easier to identify alternatives and to trace the prob-