Geology - The Need of a New Philosophy of Prospecting, 1960 Jackling Lecture (Mining Engineering Jun 1960, pg 570)

Prospecting is certainly the world's biggest and best gambling business. It is a game where the chips cost many thousands and where many millions, even billions, can be won. An attractive feature of this gamble is the fact that the players are free to rig the odds as favorably as possible. Only the limited bounty of nature, the restrictions of the laws of the land, the competition from other players, the limited sagacity of the player himself— only these, and other factors, restrict the possibilities for large winnings. Today probably about half the land surface of the earth remains to be searched for signs of ore visible at the surface. It is fortunate that so much land still remains for exploration by relatively economical methods. Looking to the future, it is a good guess that the costs of finding ore will increase in response to increasing technical difficulties. To continue to achieve profits from prospecting, it will become necessary to analyze the business more skillfully, in a more and more sophisticated manner. Whenever feasible, qualitative concepts must be replaced by their quantitative equivalents, improvements, and extensions. THE GAMBLE The fact that prospecting is a gambling business reminds us at once of the elementary rule known as the law of gambler's ruin. I hesitate to mention so simple a rule in this company of experts. This rule expresses the rather serious chance of going broke when the odds for success are small, merely by a normal run of bad luck regardless of the long-run expectations of gain. The only sure way of avoiding this special risk of gambler's ruin is to have enough capital, and the will, to continue the play many times and thus ride out the inevitable runs of bad luck. For example, if the probability of success is one in ten for each venture, there is a 35 pct chance that ten successive ventures will fail in a row. But if one has the capital to continue the play through a run of 100 failures, then the chance of gambler's ruin is only 5 in 100,000. Almost any management, I suppose, would be under terrific pressure to cease the play during a long run of bad luck. To continue to prospect under such circumstances requires great confidence in the premises, and a firm conviction in the long-term expectation of profit. There is evidence which I shall mention that in the future even the strongest companies may not have the necessary capital to prospect on the ideal scale. Joint ventures will be very desirable as a means for extending the available venture