Geostatistical modelling of McMurray oil sands deposits

"The McMurray formation in the Athabasca oil sands deposits of northern Alberta is part of the world’s second largest proven crude oil reserves. The formation is characterized by stratigraphic layers that correspond to three different depositional environments: Marine, Estuarine, and Fluvial facies. Resource estimation for oil sands has traditionally relied on polygonal and inverse distance schemes. These techniques are simple and straightforward in practice, but they do not permit reliable uncertainty assessment. This paper describes the modelling of the McMurray formation using modern geostatistical techniques.Geostatistical modelling should be performed within homogeneous geological facies. The methodology for geostatistical simulation within each of the identified facies involves: 1) assessing the most appropriate stratigraphic transformation for optimization of the correlation structure; 2) determining representative distributions with declustering and debiasing techniques; 3) modelling spatial continuity of the bitumen grade, fines grade, water saturation, and other petrophysical variables; 4) performing estimation and cross validation as checks against simulation results; 5) performing simulation for uncertainty quantification of bitumen and fines grade; and 6) model checking of simulation results against the input data, and comparisons against the kriged models. These steps are described in detail. The application of these models for uncertainty quantification in support of resource classification is also discussed."