Global Warming – An Engineering Appraisal

The predicted warming of the earth's surface, presently the subject of much debate, controversy and legislation, is based on what is termed "the greenhouse effect." This is the result of the property of certain atmospheric gases. These gases allow the passage of radiant energy to the earth's surface and reflect back, to the earth, the infrared radiation given out by the heated surface. Physicists have computed that if there were no greenhouse effect the average temperature of the earth, now about 15° C (60T), would be close to -18° C (OT). Just what gases have produced this salubrious effect? Water vapor is the most important. Then come carbon dioxide, methane and a number of minor constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and man-made. Climate change, its cause and its impact on human activities have been the subject of scientific and historical study for more than a century. Recently, some scientists have concluded that if the man-made increase in the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases continues, by the late 21st century the earth's global average temperature will rise between 2° to 8° F. This temperature rise would cause the water in the oceans to expand and the massive polar glaciers to melt. In 1980, it was predicted that the sea level would rise 7.6 m (25 ft) by the late 21st century. By 1985, the predicted rise was 1 m (3 ft); and by 1989, it was 0.3 m (1 ft) (Jastrow, Nierenberg and Seitz, 1990). Agricultural scientists have pointed out that an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide would enhance biological growth including the production of foodstuffs.