Gold and World Trade

SOMETIMES the American Institute of Mining and Metallurgical Engineers appears to be a strictly technical society, and if so my paper should deal with the technical operations of finding and producing gold. But I have not been engaged in practical gold mining since 1910. What I have been doing mainly for the last 25 years is to try to figure out what the income of a mine-gold, or any other-would be worth to an investor. So I have been in contact with gold mining, in one way or another, for some 42 years. I say that with a purpose. In that time the industry has been through one of its cycles. The value of gold mines is very dif¬ferent at different points in one of these cycles. For this reason the cycle of gold mining is a highly practical study. The cycle of gold is a more or less rhythmical change in its value or purchasing power measured in the grand average of other commodities, which is the same thing as its price. Taking the price of gold in 1897 as a stand¬ard, a dollar at that time declined to 55c. in 1913, to 26.8c. in 1920, and since then it has risen to 47.4c. in 1930 and to about 64c. in 1932. It is worth about 21/ times as much now as it was in 1920, but less than two¬thirds as much as in 1897. When this change is applied to the value of a gold mine still greater differences are evident. The cost of producing gold is of course measured in labor and other commodities, and as that cost goes down the margin of profit measured in the gold itself increases. Thus a mine which might make only 10 per cent profit in 1920 on its gross output may easily make 25 per cent now. The stockholder gets 2 ½ times more gold that is worth 2 1/2 times as much in purchasing power, therefore the real value of his holding has risen by the one factor multiplied by the other, giving him 61/4 times as much goods or services as he had in 1920.