Heap Leach Modeling – A Review of Approaches to Metal Production Forecasting

"Heap leaching is responsible for approximately 21 percent — 3.9 million metric tonnes — of copper production and 9 percent — 270 metric tonnes or 8.7 million ounces — of gold production worldwide. Given metal price assumptions of $2.25/lb for copper and $1,250/oz for gold, these portions of global production generate revenues of $19 billion and $11 billion, respectively. For heap leaching operations, small changes in metal extraction efficiency drive substantial changes in operating cash flow margins and affect project viability. Variances in actual metal production from budgetary forecast estimates can mean the difference between success (value creation) and failure (value destruction) for a heap leach project. Despite the importance of heap leaching for copper, gold and silver production worldwide, there are no clear standards or guidelines for developing heap leach metal production forecasts. There is considerable variation among copper and gold producers that apply heap leaching technology as to how such modeling and forecasting is applied at the operational level. There are a variety of different modeling approaches that can be utilized for this purpose. However, these vary in cost, complexity, time to implement, accuracy and credibility. This paper explores the options available for heap leach modeling, discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each approach, and provides guidelines/recommendations for an effective approach to modeling metal production at existing or planned heap leach operations. The paper also provides expected ranges of variation between actual and modeled production.Introduction and backgroundHeap leaching is fundamentally different from other methods used in the processing and extraction of gold, silver, and copper and other base metals. Considered globally, the technique represents a relatively modest portion of production compared with the primary technologies applied for copper and gold recovery. Approximately 21 percent of copper production is attributable to heap leaching techniques, as opposed to 79 percent by conventional crushing, milling, flotation, smelting and refining. For gold, about 9 percent of global production is obtained from heap leaching, compared with over 90 percent by various combinations of crushing, milling, gravity concentration, flotation and/or agitated cyanide leaching processes or, in the case of placer deposits, by direct gravity concentration and/or amalgamation. In cases where heap leaching is the primary source of metal production, the ability to accurately forecast metal production may be the difference between commercial success and failure for a project or operation. Heap leaching — of crushed or run-of-mine ore — is also commonly applied as a secondary process to treat lower-grade ores from a given deposit, such as at Chuquicamata in Chile, Cerro Verde in Peru and Bagdad in Arizona for copper extraction and at Twin Creeks and Carlin, both in Nevada, for gold. In such cases, heap leaching provides incremental revenue to supplement the primary process. Variances between actual and forecast metal production from heap leaching as a secondary process are typically tolerated and absorbed within the overall site metallurgical balance. In either case, accurate production modeling and forecasting creates significant value for heap leaching projects, is essential for managing production expectations — timing and volumes — and is likely to be a critical success factor for most heap leach projects."