How Much Coal Do We Really Have? The Need for an Up-to-date Survey

THE oft repeated statements of the United States Geological Survey and the Bureau of Mines that the coal reserves in the United States are sufficient for 3000 yr have given us all a sense of security hard to disturb. If we discount that statement 66 pct, which to the uninformed seems drastic, we would still have 1000 yr supply, and why should mortal man worry about the difference between 1000 and 3000 yr supply of coal. That is exactly the attitude which many who should be better in- formed have taken toward the problem. A recent brochure "How Strong is America," by the New York Herald Tribune, states there is "no end to coal * * The truth is staggering * * U. S. has enough coal to last 4000 years." What the statement actually means is that the calculator got as high as 4000 yr and decided it was pointless to go on. The President's ERP Committee on Natural Resources and others in high places continue to assure the country of our superabundance of coal. In the past few days the “Wall Street Journal" carried an item from Director Boyd of the Bureau of Mines saying that within a hundred years we would need to triple our annual coal production of 6oo,ooo,ooo tons, making it 1,800,000,000 tons annually, and at that rate we had coal reserves sufficient for 1000 yr. In my humble opinion, we cannot now or ever produce 1,800,000,000 tons annually, be- cause we do not have the reserves in the producing districts to do it. Past reckoning in geology may be, as in the Psalms, a thousand years are as yesterday, but the future must be considered more realistically, and "a thousand years" is really a "heck" of a long time. In most developed areas, mining engineers can count the coal reserves in terms of a hundred years or less, and in some important areas now producing large annual tonnages in much under fifty years. They think when they hear of thousands of years coal reserves, reference is made to distant fields and "the fields are always green far away." The estimates of our coal reserves upon which we are relying were made in 1907 under the direction of Marius R. Campbell, Director of the United States Geological Survey. It is apparent this work was not well done. It was necessarily based on rather meager data because of the little development and prospecting as of that date. There were mistakes in the correlation of seams, and they assumed the continuity of thick seams throughout large coal bearing areas where coal often did not exist. The overstatement of coal bearing areas in the Campbell figures are common. The 1907 survey includes all coals over 14 in. in thickness to a depth of 3000 ft. The total coal reserves according to Campbell were 3157.2 billion tons. The production and mining losses that year would amount to -570 million tons and