IC 8064 Copper, Lead, And Zinc In Three Recessions Following World War II ? Introduction

The condition of the domestic mining industry is obviously affected by the cycles in general business conditions. This study, the results of which are presented in a series of 78 charts, attempts to examine the interrelationships between the general business indicators and the major statistical measures for the base-metals industries during the cycles in the United States economy following World War II. For these industries the cyclical problem is perhaps less acute than the secular-trend problem. However, short-run fluctuations in production and employment do have very important impacts upon the welfare of the regions which derive a significant portion of their income from base-metals mining and processing industries. Any information concerning the normal patterns of development as the industries enter into a cyclical recession will permit better forecasts and perhaps help promote measures to alleviate the distress that occurs. Also, a systematic study of the comparative movements among the statistical measures during a series of cycles can bring to the fore the economic causation involved, and perhaps, after intensive study, can lead to a better method of short-range forecasting for these industries. This study has not fully achieved these aims. However, observations which significantly aid the interpretation of the current monthly statistics on these commodities are made, and some very general conclusions are drawn. The charts are presented so the interested people can examine them and draw additional conclusions. The charts refer specifically to cyclical analysis. The technique of indexing each cycle to its turning point effectively subordinates the longer term trend movements of the data. Thus, certain general conclusions flowing from this study and from the continuing economic research of the Office of Chief Economist will aid the reader by clarifying the frame of reference within which the charts should be examined.