IC 8384 An Energy Model For The United States, Featuring Energy Balances For The Years 1947 To 1965 And Projections And Forecasts To The Years 1980 And 2000

A simplified energy model for the United States is quantified for a recent historical period. The basic model and calculated quantified structures are used for a number of analytical case studies that estimate midterm and long-range shifts in patterns of energy resources demand and required supply. Historical data series are presented for the years 1947 to 1965 in the form of integrated energy balances by source, form, and consuming sector. In case studies I to XII, conditional projections of historical trends of energy demand and required supply are made for the midterm period 1966 to 1980. The projections are carried out by correlation of major energy components with relevant independent variables such as major economic indicators. Simulations of the medium-range projections to 1980 are carried out by varying the assumptions for the determining variables to produce high-and low-range projections for the midterm period. Case studies XIII to XXII are long term contingency or technological forecasts to the year 2000. These cases assume technological changes or innovations that produce major shifts in the long term pattern of energy consumption and the mix of required resources. The domestic resource base is assessed in its ability to meet projected or forecast demand for energy resources under the midterm and longrun assumptions made in the various case studies. Various energy issues or problems identified from the analyses of the case studies are discussed, and possible alternative approaches to solutions to these issues or problems are suggested.