IC 9371 Aluminum Availability And Supply - A Minerals Availability Appraisal

The U.S. Bureau of Mines investigated the resources, costs, capacities, market relationships, and short-and long-term supply of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum. The 45 evaluated mines and deposits in 14 market economy countries (MEC's) have a demonstrated resource of 8.4 billion mt of bauxite and an aluminum content of approximately 2.1 billion mt. Developed world bauxite resources and existing primary aluminum smelting and refining capacity are sufficient to satisfy demand through at least 1995, when additional properties (with higher cost levels) would need to be developed to satisfy future demand levels. It is anticipated that new alumina or aluminum production most likely would occur in developing regions with large bauxite potential, low-cost energy sources, and a close proximity to refining and/or smelting capacity. An increase in aluminum recycling capacity would help meet future demand increases. A series of network model supply analyses was performed for the period 1988 through 2000. Based on announced future production levels and assuming demand grows at the level outlined in the analyses, model results indicate there is sufficient material available to meet demand until 1998, where-upon an aluminum shortfall is projected. Additional analyses investigated the effect of a reduced growth rate of demand and regional production variations in Venezuela on the international aluminum industry.