Improved Strategies for TBM Performance Prediction and Project Management

Prediction of excavation rates is a critical element in the pre-planning of a tunnel boring machine (TBM) project. A realistic evaluation of performance expectations is needed that reflects both the knowns and unknowns of the excavation process and geologic conditions. Current planning procedures are often based on deterministic “best guess” estimations. In this paper, a probabilistic approach to performance simulation is presented that will permit rational consideration of general and project-specific uncertainties in establishing realistic performance estimates. Companion to the simulation software is a database of over 600 public-domain case histories.