Improving On The Estimation Of Recoverable Reserves

Reconciliation of long-term block model reserves and mine production frequently shows significant discrepancies. This reconciliation can be done comparing the long-term block model reserves against a grade control model (generally, a model based on blast holes or production data). in this paper called an FI factor for tonnages, grade, and ounces; and also it should be done comparing the grade control model to the mill feed (or loaded to heaps) tonnages, grades and ounces (called an F2 factor). The long-term model usually contains blocks with dimensions larger than the size of the selective mining unit (SMU) of the operation. The smoothing effect of an estimator such as kriging will generally result in a grade-tonnage curve that does not match the grade-tonnage curve of the SMU's to be recovered. This problem is partly to blame for the reconciliation discrepancies found. In addition, in-pit perfect selection is impossible. and therefore the grade-tonnage predictions based on blast holes also need to be assessed, considering both unplanned dilution and the errors of estimation of the grade control model. This paper will focus on using conditional simulations to assess the uncertainty of the predicted grade-tonnage curve in terms of minable reserves, and in the framework of long-term mine planning. Quantifying the uncertainty in no uncertain terms is done in conjunction with a popular pit optimizer, which will yield not one, but several possible minable reserves, and therefore a range of possible minable tonnages and grades per pit shell or scheduled phase. This is a step further from the usual sensitivity analyses that are performed for deposit evaluation or development planning. Specifically, this approach takes into account the volume-variance relationship, the selectivity of the mining operation, planned and unplanned dilution. and carries the local uncertainty implicit in grade estimation into the mine design and mine planning phases. The motivation for the approach is discussed through an example, as well as a description of the procedures and steps involved.