Inflation in project evaluation

"Those who submit competing proposals for projects seek to present senior management with complete and fully supported material that will not fail under questioning. Hopefully, misleading notions and omissions will have been minimized and there will have been testing of the assumptions regarding the economic, social and political environments. A capital project evaluation team can do management and itself a service by including a sound approach to the impact of inflation (and its twin problem, interest) on a project and a great disservice with an inappropriate approach to inflation.InflationHandled deftly, inflation can alter a project evaluation to show almost any result the handler desires. It must be a constant source of frustration for design people and cost estimators to spend weeks perfecting the technical aspects of a project in order to minimize costs, only to have all of their efforts set awash in a sea of financial and economic assumptions that submerge all of the detail. In all of this, inflation is perhaps the largest offender, with inflation criteria often being brought to bear at the last minute, almost as an afterthought. Perhaps this tardiness reflects the difficulty of the subject and the belief that senior management will take its own approach to the problems of inflation. Such a belief is unfair to senior management, for it is entitled to not being misled by omission. It is entitled to the full use of the skills of the evaluating team, including respectable assumptions of the impact of inflation.Working in a consulting context, one has the opportunity to participate in the evaluation of a large number of projects. Reflecting the observation of a wide range of views regarding the subject of inflation, this paper will-address the impact of five different approaches to inflation on the evaluation of a single Canadian mining project."