Iron & Steel: The Paley Report In Retrospect

Resources for Freedom, a report by the President's Materials Policy Commission, commonly termed either the Paley report, after its chairman, or the PMPC report, was issued in June 1952. The data collecting and assembly work for its preparation were done in 1951. The statistical base in most cases was 1950. It reviewed our economy and predicted what it will be in 1975.* The bases for the predictions were given. Consideration was given not only to statistical data and trends but also to technological changes taking place and likely to take place in the ensuing 25 years that will affect our economy. The supply of raw materials was studied and predictions made as to the availability of supply and the sources in 1975. One of the industries covered was iron and steel. For the most part the report did not attempt to provide a curve showing annual growth for any industry or commodity. It contrasted 1950 with the probable status in 1975. Interpolation between these dates is difficult and the Commission did not intend that it be used for short interim intervals. It is possible in 1958 to show the actual changes from 1950. The magnitude of the changes illustrates the agreement with some interpolation of the Paley report. Statistical comparisons can be general only because the Commission did not postulate a linear change. A study of the iron and steel industry will show if the general predictions have been realized or if gross errors were made. This paper is concerned with such an analysis. It is concerned with the production and consumption of crude, not fabricated products. It attempts to bring various facets of technical and statistical information on the industry up to date.