Lithium-Ion Batteries: Examining Material Demand and Recycling Issues

Use of vehicles with electric drive, which could reduce our oil dependence, will depend on lithium-ion batteries. But is there enough lithium? Will we need to import it from a new cartel? Are there other materials with supply constraints? We project the maximum demand for lithium and other materials if electric-drive vehicles expanded their market share rapidly, estimating material demand per vehicle for four battery chemistries. Total demand for the United States is based on market shares from an Argonne scenario that reflects high demand for electric-drive vehicles, and total demand for the rest of the world is based on a similar International Energy Agency scenario. Total material demand is then compared to estimates of production and reserves, and the quantity that could be recovered by recycling, to evaluate the adequacy of supply. We also identify producing countries to examine potential dependencies on unstable regions or future cartels.