Long term demand for construction raw materials and the implications for minerals provision; the case of sand and gravel in the Netherlands

Demand for construction raw materials depends on investment in housing, other buildings and infrastructure. The provision of these materials requires early knowledge of future trends in construction investment. By using scenarios possible future developments and bandwidths can be explored. Policy makers in government organisations as well as in the private sector can base their policy decisions upon these insights. In this paper we discuss the case of sand and gravel in the Netherlands. We will show that, depending on the future role of government and the degree of internationalisation, the long term demand for construction raw materials will strongly diverge. Nevertheless there are some common developments such as a decreasing population growth, a smaller share of the labour force in total population and a growing wealth. In different scenarios we will encounter different conditions for minerals provision and for sustainable development.