Long-term Planning of Coal Mines by Statistical Evaluation of Databases in Existing Mines

Ruhrkohle in West Germany evaluates and compares the net present values of long-term periods from its coal mines by a computer assisted long-term planning system. Two main parts of this system are computer programs for the prediction of: (a) mineable reserves and their distribution in longwall panels as a function of dependent geological variables; (b) daily outputs and costs of longwall panels as a function of dependent geo- logical, layout and operational variables. This paper describes the investigations, which ended in the above computer programs: ? the collection of information from past workings and their organization in databases; ? the statistical evaluation of the databases, and ? the resulting correlation formulas. The correlation formulas vary the mean dependent variables as a function of independent variables which can be indicated with high reliability for planning projects in the long run. The system thus serves the purpose of facilitating long-term planning and excluding biased individual judgement of local planning staffs.