Long-Time Growth and Factors in Its Variation

PERHAPS the most extraordinary thing about business, the trade and production of the country as a whole, is its amazing continuity and growth, its momentum and energy. It goes on year after year, growing steadily, almost without breaks, in spite of every kind of disturbance. We have been grossly deceived into the idea that business is highly variable. We have taken a few things like pig iron, and the like, constructional activity broadly, and imagined that these are a trustworthy measure of trade. Actually they are the worst that we could find. They do not apply to more than 10 per cent or, at the most, possibly 15 per cent of the total of the country's industrial activity. The other 85 or 90 per cent, or even more, goes on growing surely and steadily just like the growth of population and the steady advance in technique, invention, discovery, and improved methods of production Let me give you what seems to me one of the most remarkable examples of this amazing momentum and regularity. You know that 90 per cent or more of the business of the country is done 'by means of checks. About seven-eighths of the total of all checks drawn are reported regularly every week in the newspapers. Let us follow these reports from week to week, just as they come, and plot them up against the correspond- ing weeks of last year, and the year before, and the gear before that, as far back as you would like to go. Take especially the figures for 140 selected cities out- side of New York.