Luck & Skill: Black Swans & Machiavelli’s Ideas on Power, Fortune, Virtù

"We hear all the time about the value of hard work and perseverance, and the part they play in the professional life of successful people. What we do not hear so much about are the many professionals who work hard and persevere, yet never seem to quite reach the level of success they aim for. Some current authors are beginning to give more attention to the part luck/black swans/outliers play in success. This is not a new phenomenon, Machiavelli had a lot to say about it back in the Renaissance. So how can knowledge of this dynamic help in a modern organization? INTRODUCTION Work hard and you will succeed. Go to the right school, major in the right degree, study hard, and get a good job. Look at the lives of successful people, and do what they do. Be all that you can be. You can be anything you want to be. Really? Those who are successful always get attention, people want to know what they did to reach such a high position. Invariably, at least part of their narrative will include hard work, wise insight, taking advantage of opportunities, etc. If they are of a more generous nature, they might also allow that building the right friendships and collaborations also played a role. All of this may be true; what we do not often hear are the stories of those who did all of these very same things, but did not find success. An example from pop culture: The Voice. I have watched this show occasionally the past couple of years. One of the things I like about the show is that the initial screening of contestants is based solely on their singing voice (hence the name of the show), and not on their appearance. At the time of this writing (early November), the judges have just finished elimination rounds for their final teams to go on to the live shows. Here is my point—in almost every case the judges agonized over choosing who would go forward and who would be eliminated. And the reason is because all of them are really talented singers. It is impressive how gifted they are. At the end of each season, only one is declared a winner, out of that gifted pool of singers. When you hear their stories, they are all talented, hard-working individuals sacrificing for their art. And as far as I know, none of them has ever become a star. Hard work, dedication, sacrifice, talent—sometimes it is enough, sometimes not. I will be looking at the part uncertainty/luck/black swans play in our lives, but I want to make it clear at the beginning that I am not saying everything that happens to us is out of our hands or beyond our control. Taleb makes this same point (2007, p. 52): “This problem is chronic: if you tell people that the key to success is not always skills, they think that you are telling them that it is never skills, always luck.”"