Managing metal price risks

"Metal prices are frequently the most critical and least predictable element in determining the profitability of mining operations. Short -term fluctuations can be offset in varying degrees by hedging or other market actions. Such solutions are not practical for the longer term, The paper investigates the nature and extent of metal price risks and evaluates methods to reduce them.IntroductionIt is management's responsibility to improve the odds by managing the-risks by identifying them clearly, assessing them accurately, minimizing them where possible-and, then, timing decision s success fully.In determining the profitability of current operations, preparing forward plan s or developing feasibility studies for new projects or expansions, pr ices are usually the most critical input. Being market determined rather than cost based, they can also be the most unpredictable As a result, commodity prices are frequently the greatest of all risk factors.Nature of Commodity PricesThe cyclical nature of commodity prices is well known. They are stable only when supply is in balance with demand and forecast to remain that way. An imbalance on either side of the equation can lead to a price reaction completely out of proportion to the actual or perceived surplus or shortage.This exaggeration arises through the cumulative effect of market forces. When the market senses an uptrend, consumers buy for the expected increase in activity. They also seek additional quantities for inventory before price s rise. Merchants defer spot sales anticipating higher price s, speculators go along for the same reason, and producers raise prices in response to demand. Events tend to confirm the expectation of each party and strengthen their reaction causing prices to move higher."