Megaprojects: 50 Years, What Have We Learned?

"INTRODUCTION Successful management of megaprojects, meaning delivery within budget, on time and according to expectations, is a fundamental requirement. Many projects have been successful, some have not. This paper reviews megaprojects1, drawn from the author’s projects over the last 50 years, with “lessons-learned” and a summary of recommendations that, if implemented, would improve megaproject management and delivery. Characteristics of these projects are summarized – including outcomes related to key factors such as politics, management, organizational structure, contracting methods, cost estimates, risk and other elements. The projects include the Washington D.C. Metro, Boston Southwest Corridor, LA Metro, Toronto Rapid Transit Expansion Program, BART San Francisco, MARTA Atlanta, London Underground and the Washington State Highway megaprojects – including the SR520 Floating Bridge and the Alaskan Way tunnel. Other projects that illustrate successful, innovative management and contracting methods include the Madrid Metro (low-cost delivery), the Sydney Northside Storage tunnel (outturn cost, alliancing) and the Lake Mead tunnel (working in partnership, risk management). KEY ISSUES A characteristic of megaprojects is that their complexity increases exponentially with size (Reilly 2010, Galloway et al. 2012). These projects are very visible politically, have many stakeholders who must be satisfied and generally span many years and political election cycles. To be successful they must meet expectations, function efficiently, and be delivered under, at or close to budget and schedule. There is a widely-based perception that large, complex projects are always delivered late, over budget and with problems. Specific examples include projects such as Tren Urbano in Puerto Rico – $1.28 billion over initial budget (+133%), the Silver Line Transitway Project in Boston – $286 million over budget (+90%), the London Jubilee Line Transit Project – 2 years late and £1.4 billion (+67%) over budget, the Channel Tunnel Rail Project – £3.7 billion (+80%) over budget, Denmark’s Great Belt Link rail and road link (54% over budget), the 2003 Woodrow Wilson bridge tender in Virginia (72% over estimate) and Boston’s Central Artery Project – several billion (perhaps 100%) over what would have been a realistic initial budget and years late (Reilly 2001c, 2004a; Salvucci 2003)."