Metallugical Plant ù Have We Run Out of Developments?

I have headed this paper with a question and for the impatient among you ûthe answer is no we have not run out of developments but, and it is a big æbutÆ, we need to be innovative and ahead of the game or ænoÆ will be æyesÆ before we know it.Why do I believe that our future lies in innovation? Thirty years ago, knowledge doubled every 14 years. It is now doubling every seven years. In 1965, Gordon Moore, one of the founders of the chip maker Intel, made an observation that growth in memory chip performance is doubled every 18 months which became known as MooreÆs Law. Now there is fibre law, where the transmission line capacity doubles every nine months and storage capacity, under disc law, doubles every 12 months. What does this mean? Well, firstly there is a massive rise in information flow and availability with no limits in growth for at least the next ten years. Secondly, unlike our grandfathers, we are most unlikely to be employed by the same firm for our working career - we may not even have the choice to stay with the same company. In a phenomenon Richard Foster and Sarah Kaplan (2001), borrowing from Schumpeter, termed æcreative destructionÆ, companies are unable to sustain market-beating levels of performance for more than ten to 15 years. In the 1920s the turnover rate of companies in the United States was 1.5 per cent, so a company could employ almost three generations from the one family. A company had a half life of 60 years. In other words, you could well be in the same working environment as your grandparents. Today the churn rate is estimated to be eight to ten per cent. A company has a half life of five to six years. So for large companies, as an employer or employee or as a contractor, your working environment has a 50 per cent chance of changing in five years. Innovation is the driver of this rapid rate of change. Innovation is not for the faint hearted (Cutler, 2001) but it is the core for success in the global economy. The rate of change in our world is not going to decrease. We must learn, not only to manage change, but to enjoy the process of changing û to ride the tsunami of the knowledge economy.