Metals And Mining Industry Capital Formation And Project Finance Prospects - A New Agenda

A new agenda has risen. Born out of governments' policies and world economies, the years ahead will carry with them reduced growth. For inflation dependent and capital intensive industries, such as metals and mining, as well as most other natural resource industries, a period of long-term contraction in outmoded and costly capacity will evolve. This will be supplanted by new, lower cost capacity in some cases, but only if the total cost of production, including cash operating and debt service costs comes in at or below current market conditions. The industrial outlook can be characterized as bearish. As one major U.S. bank economist put it, mining companies planning their five-year forecast from 1984 out, should take the current market conditions and straight-line them to the end of the decade. With low growth and low inflation, the real price of metals will remain flat or slightly declining. As a result, capital funding will be problematic. The low cost producer, that is one with low cash costs and low principal and interest costs per unit of production, will succeed.