Mineral Economics - Changing Factors in Mine Valuation

THE value of a mine is basically dependent on its capacity to yield profits. Since the ore must be mined, treated, and sold, some of it in various future years. there is a risk involved as to future costs, selling price, and working conditions. It cannot be expected that the economic condition existing at the time of valuation will continue unchanged for long periods in the future. During the past 20 years, mineral production in the United States has been conducted under a changing economy in many respects more exacting than that applied to other businesses. There have been increased production incentives, technical aid, exploration of privately owned mineral deposits by government at federal expense, and liberal loans for development and equipment, with risk partially assumed by government.. Some of these benefits have been counterbalanced by price ceilings, consumption controls, and stimulation of competition from foreign producers who have been offered the same advantages extended to American operators. For the present, mines will operate under a government policy directed toward reducing federal aid and control. The tenure of this change will depend upon future elections and the status of foreign relations. War and threat of war are now of the most vital significance to the mineral industries. Other factors which influence cost of production, markets, and price of mine output might be classified as Acts of God or Acts of Government. In some countries expropriation and the difficulty of exporting earnings or investment returns are risks that must be considered by foreign capital. Recognizing that this retards American investment in foreign countries, the Mutual Security Agency offers insurance against such expropriation and guarantees the convertibility of capital and profits. Since it is impossible to predict with certainty either cost of production or selling prices of metals for long periods, some assumptions must be made as to profits in the future. The basic assumption must be that the price of the company's product will vary in proportion to changes in operating cost. There is often a lag in this reaction, however, for prices of minerals are generally more sensitive to declines and less sensitive to increases than are costs. This reflects in part the resistance of labor to downward wage revision and a corresponding alertness in realizing its share of price advances. Some labor contracts include automatic adjustments to metal prices. Notwithstanding the complexity of the, problems involved and the difficulty of weighing their effect on value, such risks may be appraised with reasonable accuracy and a rate of earnings adopted that is compatible with the risk. It is, of course, possible to revert to a yardstick of value such as the commodity dollar, which has been advocated from time to time, but while revaluation in 1933 disturbed public confidence, the theoretical gold dollar continues to be the standard of greatest stability. Its gain or loss in purchasing power is reflected ultimately in cost of production and selling price of the mine product. At present 35 dollars are allocated to one ounce of gold. Measurement of Risk In the application of the Hoskold and most other formulae, a yearly dividend rate commensurate with the risk involved is set aside out of annual earnings. If the risk is great, this rate may be 15 to 25 pct of the amount invested. The remainder is placed in a sinking fund invested in safe securities such as high grade bonds or conservative equities, and the interest or dividends from these securities are added to the sinking fund. The sum of these sinking fund payments and the compounded interest at the end of the mine life is taken as the value of the mine. Admittedly the decision as to the size of the risk rate is the most difficult element in valuation and one requiring the most exacting consideration. It is necessary to look years ahead in an effort to determine future costs, market prices, demand, competition which may develop, including that of substitutes, and other influences common to the mine and to the region in which it is situated. Another phase of risk is the enactment of unfavorable legislation, taxes, and what appears to be an alarming spread of nationalization and expropriation. Capital is sometimes borrowed from the government to finance strategic production. Such loans may be collectable only out of production and involve no liability otherwise. Valuation in these cases must recognize the effect of such a reduction in liability. Offsetting some of these risks are the possibilities of mechanization and other cost-reducing discoveries, improvements in mining and treatment methods, new uses for minerals and metals, and normal growth of markets. In this paper, the terms risk rate, dividend rate, and speculative rate are synonymous. Safe rate and redemption rate are also used interchangeably. These alternatives are used here because they are commonly found in the literature on mine valuation. In Michigan, the State Tax Commission has long employed a risk rate of 6 pct in its valuation of iron mines. There the outline of reserves is well established and operating costs and conditions are based on adequate experience. The following comment on rates appears in the report of the Minnesota Interior commission on Iron Ore Taxation submitted to the Minnesota Legislature of 1941.1 Most engineers agree that 7 percent for the specu-lative rate is "an absolute minimum". C. K. Leith in