Mineral Facts And Problems 1970 Edition ? Introduction ? The Evolving Minerals Economy

The first major evaluation of the nation's raw materials prospects after World War II was completed by the President's Materials Policy Commission (Paley Commission) in 1952 and submitted to the President in June of that year, as a five-volume study entitled Resources for Freedom. The bulk of the report was devoted to an analysis of the past, present, and probable future of the Nation's mineral supply industries. The Commission's evaluation of the future situation regarding minerals was derived from its forecasts of the probable domestic demand for the major minerals in the 1970's. This demand analysis was made in the context of probable worldwide demand. Several crucial assumptions were made by the Commission's fore-casters. It was assumed in 1950 that the next 20 to 30 years would see no major wars and be a period of sustained economic growth. Another assumption was that the anticipated demand for raw materials must be supplied at essentially no increase in real cost in order to avoid crucial supply problems. The Commission's forecasts were derived within the context of the country's expected future rate of economic activity. The gross national product (GNP) growth to 1975 was derived from projections of the number of people in the labor force, hours of work, and an index of probable production measured per unit of labor input. It was believed labor hours would decrease and labor productivity would increase. The result was a forecast GNP growth rate of 3 percent.