Mineral resource risk assessment in the BHPBilliton capital investment process

BHPBilliton is a large (US$32bn market capitalization) diversified mining group. Significant organic growth is planned through the development of a number of mining, processing and oil and gas projects, totalling some US$5.2bn over the next three years. The investment standards underpin the capital approval process, and incorporate the requirements for range and risk analysis of key input variables, including mineral resources. Public reporting codes for mineral resources and ore reserves (such as JORC) stipulate deterministic reporting of estimates, but are generally silent on any requirement for range or risk assessment, although they acknowledge the risk and uncertainty in the production of resource estimates. In contrast, public reporting of petroleum reserves allow for the use of either deterministic or probabilistic estimation, and for the latter, mandate the level of confidence required for proven versus probable reserves. Conditional simulation techniques, popular in the petroleum industry, provide an ideal tool forrange and risk assessment of the range of outcomes of key resource parameters, such as tonnagesand grades. Examples of a diamond deposit and of a porphyry copper deposit are presented. The understanding and quantification of mineral resource risk through a technique such as conditional simulation provides quantified information on the potential upside or downside. These techniques should be more widely utilized in the high-risk minerals extraction industry. Keywords: mineral resources, conditional simulation, risk, capital investment standards, BHPBilliton.