Mineral Valuation in a World of Volatile and Cyclical Commodities

"The fortunes of mining companies and their implied value are tied to cycles - both economic and commodity – within which they operate. Hence the determination of appropriate future metal prices is one of the most critical factors faced by mineral valuators especially for advanced projects. Price, and hence revenue, is usually the most sensitive input to the valuation model. Empirical studies of past forecasts show that the success rate for commodity price forecasting is very poor. This paper explores various approaches and comments on their strengths and weaknesses. We conclude that careful evaluation of long-term metal prices is a key element and is hardly a luxury that can be left to simple averages or rules of thumb. INTRODUCTION Discounted Cash Flow (""DCF"") analysis, is well suited for the valuation of advanced mineral development assets, for which there are identified mineral resources and some form of economic assessment (Pre-Feasibility or Feasibility Study). The DCF method is also the most commonly used method for determining value for such assets. It provides a means of relating the magnitude of expected future cash flows from profits (or losses) to the magnitude of the initial cash flow (investment) needed for capital expenditures to purchase or to develop an asset for commercial production. The method proves useful in making investment decisions as it allows for the quantification of the Net Present Value (“NPV”), as well as the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback Period on initial investment capital. Valuation by its very nature is a forward-looking exercise. The DCF method attempts to estimate the NPV of expected future cash flows, by selecting factors that will likely affect future cash flow based on informed analysis. One of the most critical and sensitive factors is the determination of appropriate future commodity prices. “The variables that have the greatest impact on a DCF evaluation are the reserves, the metal prices, and the discount rate.”1 The determination of future commodity prices for valuation purpose or during M&A negotiations is a hotly contested issue. There are a number of analysts, institutions and specialized commercial data suppliers that provide both short and long-term commodities price forecasts. Also, the use of an aggregated mean for all available forecasts, or consensus forecasted prices for valuation purposes is not uncommon. The methods used in making forecasts for each forecaster may vary and in many cases may not be publically disclosed. Nonetheless, the aggregated mean of all forecasted commodity prices of reputed institutions is usually taken to “represent the market’s view of likely future commodity prices.”"