Minerals In Man's Future

From the title of this chapter the reader could expect an attempt to outline the anticipated shape of things to come, mineralwise. We have no crystal ball and if we possessed one we could claim no expertness in its use. In the first place no one can tell the future status of man. No one has any way of knowing to what extent peace will prevail, nor to what extent changes may occur in national sovereignties or forms of government or in international relationships. So future man is an uncertainty. Nor can we predict new developments that may result in significant changes in man's status or in the mineral industry or both. If, for example, this chapter had been written in the middle 1930's, nearly everything that has happened since in the field of atomic energy would have been missed. Yet what a vast change this has made in the status of man! Also the changes in the mineral industry have been important. A writer would have been bold indeed had he prophesied that uranium would play such an important role. But we need not confine our foggy vision to the atomic energy field. The steep rise in the use of aluminum, titanium, and germanium reflects the unpredictable in what may be thought of as the more normal pursuits. This should not discourage one from using the past and currently observable trends as bases for limited predictions. To do this, however, it is desirable to make certain assumptions about man's status without even a pretense that these assumptions have a high probability of fulfillment: 1. Only minor changes will occur in the geographical boundaries of the nations of the world. 2. World War III will not take place in the near future. 3. As a consequence of (2), man will not destroy himself by wanton use of atomic weapons. 4. Disarmament will take place, if at all, gradually rather than all at one time. Under the above assumptions the world will enjoy a period of relative peace even though the status may be one of an armed truce. The assump-