Minimum concentrations of critical minerals for exploration: How good is good enough? - ME Feature Article

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a critical mineral is one that is essential to the economic well -being of a nation and whose supply may be disrupted due to geological, geopolitical or environmental factors (Nassar et al., 2020). For example, REEs are critical to the production of electricvehicle motors as well as wind turbines, yet China’s share of their global production rose to more than 95 percent in 2010 (IEA, 2021). China’s share has since declined, with production quotas dropping to nearly 70 percent by 2023 (Statista, 2023). This and similar situations with many of the critical minerals raise deep global concerns about supply-chain vulnerabilities (Bauer et al., 2011). Critical minerals are used in the production of renewable energy, electronics, agricultural products and common household items (McLemore, 2020). As the global demand for these minerals continues to grow, it is not sufficient to rely solely on scaling up production from existing operations. While increasing production from known deposits can provide short-term relief, long-term resource security requires discovering new, economically viable mineral resources. One of the most effective ways to secure future supply is through mineral exploration, which increases the global inventory of critical minerals and also minimizes risks posed by market monopolies and political instability. The major challenge of mineral exploration lies not only in identifying mineralized deposits but also in determining whether discovered concentrations are sufficient to warrant further investigation and development. A fundamental concept in this decision-making process is using cut-off grade. In this article, cut-off grade refers to the minimum concentration of minerals required to justify further exploration efforts based on factors such as type and size of mineral deposit, mining and processing technologies, associated byproducts/coproducts and the market price of these minerals. Typically, economic cut-off grades are used to determine whether a mineral deposit can be mined profitably. However, this article focuses on preliminary cut-off grades needed to establish whether the amounts of critical minerals within a deposit are high enough to justify further exploration and detailed evaluations. By comparing mineral deposit grades, size, production and extraction technology, and other economic factors with established and active mines, exploration teams can estimate cut-off grades that justify further exploration.