Mining Industry Hits Bottom, Then Begins Long Climb Out of Recession

"Name your poison," wrote Forbes, Jan. 3, 1983, in an article describing the plight of much of the mineral industry as it entered the new year. "To ask which (mining) segment is better these days is almost like asking which of several stones would make a better life preserver." "The scene has seldom seemed darker or apparently less promising," said the Mining Journal in June 1982. And the Northern Miner described the year as the third in a "3-year drought which has completely dried up (company) coffers." Thus, 1982 became the worst year for much of the mining industry since the Great Depression. Low prices, commodity surpluses, output reductions, layoffs, temporary and permanent closures, and financial losses made headlines as the general recession continued to hurl blows at an industry facing strong foreign competition, increased government regulations, and plummeting market demand. At fault were tight US monetary policies and the resulting high interest rates that, while forcing inflation to slow, also threw the economic wheels of the country into reverse gear. Automobile production, housing starts, consumer durable sales, and capital spending all fell dramatically. US industrial production fell about 8.5% in 1982, with the GNP dropping by 1.7%. Production Value Not a single mineral escaped this recession. According to the US Bureau of Mines, US nonfuel production value dropped for all but four out of 21 metals and 14 out of 44 nonmetals. Production quantities increased for only gold, lead, and zirconium among metals and for only six nonmetals. Total nonfuel mineral production value dropped a whopping 21% from 1981 levels, the largest decline since 1938 and the first since 1971. Production value was estimated at $20 billion. Metal commodities showed heavier losses than nonmetals-37% vs. 12%-because of their link to depressed automobile and construction industries. Prices From peaks in early 1980, prices of precious and base metals, ferrous and nonferrous metals, and virtually every mineral dropped to 30-month lows in June 1982. Gold dropped to $9.64/g ($300/oz) compared to a high of $27/g ($850/ oz). Silver was quoted below 164/g ($5/oz) versus a $1.61/g ($50/oz) high. Copper was offered at a five-year low of $1.22/kg (55.5¢/lb) compared with a high of $3.30/kg ($1.50/lb). Lead went for 53¢/kg (24¢/lb) versus $1.21 (554). Nickel begged for buyers at $4.19/kg ($1.90/lb) compared to a high price of $7.72/kg ($3.50/lb). Molybdenum was available at or below $8.82/kg ($4/lb), down from a high of $44/kg ($20/lb). Cobalt went for $11/kg ($5/lb) versus $55/kg ($25/lb). Adjusted for inflation, increased currency costs, and currency devaluation, many of these prices are the lowest reached in decades. Financial Profits & Losses Low prices severely impacted companies' earnings, turning profits into sometimes disastrous or fatal losses. Robert Norton, director of the US Bureau of Mines, noting there has been a recession in the mineral industry for years, said, "Profit rates as related to invested capital have been considerably lower (for mining) than those of other industries. Mineral industry profits have been subject to greater cyclical swings and debt equity ratios have been significantly greater than