Moontlike toekomstige gedrag van bedryfskoste in die Suid-Afrikaanse goudmynbedryf

The expected curtailment of activities within the gold-mining industry by the closure of the more marginal mines, and the shortening of the life of the industry as a whole as a result of rising costs and/or an uncertain gold price, are factors that are bound to harm the South African economy in a number of ways. The industry has no option but to regard the gold price, which is determined on the world market, as a given quantity. The remaining ore reserves al tend to be of a lower grade and/or to be found at greater depth. Therefore tighter control of working costs would seem to be almost the only option open to the industry. Working costs can be divided into two broad categories: costs emanating from the environmental characteristics of the orebody, and costs emanating from the general inflationary environment in which the industry has to purchase its inputs. Working costs stemming from the physical environment also fall into two categories: those relating to the grade of the orebody, and those resulting from working at increasing depth and temperature, together with the need to pump increasing quantities of water. The industry is both capital- and labour-intensive in absolute terms, since it requires large inputs of labour as well as of capital. It is limited in its scope to adjust its production function by becoming more labour- or more capital intensive, and is dependent on a large labour force, which cannot easily be replaced by capital inputs. On the other hand, large amounts of capital are required for investment in shafts, development, machinery, and equipment. Since the early seventies, the working costs of the South African gold-mining industry have increased at an annual rate that was significantly higher than the general rate of inflation. This rapid rise in working costs has caused some mines to find themselves in a difficult profit position. At times, the gold-mining industry has even been compelled to restructure its cost/revenue relationship rather fundamentally by revising the grade of ore worked sharply upwards or downwards, as the case may be. The rise in the gold price since 1972 has made it possible for the industry to introduce significant changes in its Black wage policy. The main aim was to increase the permanency of the Black labour force and to encourage local Black workers to join the industry. At the same time, significant increases were also experienced in the cost of machinery and stores, as well as of capital, mainly as a result of inflation. In the study on which this paper is based, the author attempted to measure the influence of environmental factors on working costs, using the physical consumption of electricity as a criterion for measurement. He found that the usefulness of this criterion in relation to factors such as depth, temperature, and water quantities pumped was invariably more than neutralized by the effects of greater productivity and economies of scale. The effects of these environmental factors on the working costs of the industry could therefore not be determined to any degree of accuracy. It seems that good progress is being made with the development of capital-intensive forms of technology aimed at coping with rapidly rising working costs and other effects of increasing depth. Techniques are also being developed to improve rock-cutting procedures and to eliminate the use of explosives in order to introduce a continuous mining process. On the whole, the gold-mining industry seems to be more sensitive to general inflationary pressures than to the cost effects that are associated with depth, temperature, and water quantities pumped. Greater control is possible over physical environmental factors such as the grade of ore mined, temperature, rate and nature of development of a mine, and adaptation of the daily working cycle to a continuous mining process. Wolfe and others hold the view that the industry will lose control over labour costs as a result of the 'sharp increase in wages and the growth of Black trade unions. However, the use of more capital-intensive technology will allow the industry to reduce its labour force, and a smaller, better-trained, and more permanent labour force will enable the industry to cope with the increasingly difficult physical environment and higher wages.