Multiphase Risk Management Method (MRMM) and Its Application in Quasi Rectangle Shield Tunnel in China

"It is well known that tunnelling involves a high degree of risk. Conventional risk management only evaluates risks and chooses mitigation measures before the start of a project. However, mitigation measures also introduce risks, which are ignored in the conventional risk control process when choosing different measures. The Multiphase Risk Management Method (MRMM) takes the risk of mitigation measures and dynamic risk control into consideration. This paper introduces this new method and provides a flow chart for better understanding. A case study of the MRMM is given based on Ningbo Metro Line 3, the first quasi rectangle shield tunnel in China. INTRODUCTION Tunnelling itself is generally complex and involves a high degree of uncertainty (Huang, 2006; Thompson and Thompson, 2006). In recent years, several metro tunnel projects in China have been involved in accidents (Wang, 2006; Gong and Zhang, 2012).As a result, Chinese tunnel engineers are paying more and more attention to risk management in tunnel projects (Xiao-lin and Ping et al., 2009; Zhong and Jia et al., 2014), and scholars around the world have put forward many management processes. Existing risk management mainly focuses on a particular stage of a tunneling project. Tunnel engineers or other project parties usually carry out risk assessment and set up schemes or choose mitigation measures before a project begins. The risk from this initial risk assessment may be defined as the initial risk (Bai and Dai et al., 2013). This kind of managing process has been widely used for its simplicity and comprehensibility. However, this static theory cannot properly reveal the dynamic character of the risk during tunnelling. In addition, to reduce the risk from unacceptable level to acceptable level also calls for optimum measures. Therefore, the multiphase risk management method was proposed (Bai and Dai et al., 2013). The purpose of this paper is to introduce and develop the MRMM, and to provide a brief flow chart to illustrate the risk management process based on it. Finally, an example of the first quasi rectangle shield tunnel in China in Ningbo Metro Line 3 is illustrated. It analyzes the initial and secondary risk and sets up a risk control system."