New York Paper February, 1918 - Some New Methods for Estimating the Future Production of Oil Wells (with Discussion)

Introduction ............................... 492 Theories Relating to the Recovery of Oil.................. 493 Methods Commonly Employed for the Estimation of Future Production..... 495 Saturation Method........................... 495 Production Curve Method....................... 496 Production per Acre Method.....................: 496 Appraisal Curves.............................. 498 Derivation and Construction...................... 498 Comparison of Appraisal Curves of the Osage and Nowata Fields...... 505 Use of Appraisal Curves........................ 506 Accuracy of the Apprais?l Curves and Their Sources of Error........ 508 Relation Between Future Productions of Wells of Equal Output....... 510 Use of Appraisal Curves for the Derivation of Generalized Future Decline Curves. 513 Theory of Generalized Curves Showing the Decline in Production...... 513 Suggested Methods for Making Closer Estimates.............. 517 Use of Logarithmic Coordinate Paper.................... 518 Summary................................ 520 Introduction Oil wells usually reach their maximum daily output shortly after they are completed. From that time they decline in production, the rapidity of decline depending on the output of the wells and on other factork governing their productivity. The production curve of a well shows the amount of oil produced per unit of time for several consecutive periods; if the conditions affecting the rate of production are not changed by outside influences, the curve will be fairly regular, and, if projected, will furnish useful knowledge as to the future production of the well. By the aid of this knowledge the value of a property maybe judged, and proper depletion and depreciation charges may be made on' the books of the