Next 200 Years of Metal Prices

Five Hypotheses are given for factors influencing long-run metals price forecasts. 1 . Geologists succeed when given the money. 2. Better understanding of a metals market depresses its price. 3 . Statistical techniques get forecasts wrong. 4. Long-run metals prices are related to crustal abundance. 5 . Economic cycles affect metals prices more than is realised. These are then framed within the transition between eras as influenced by apparent long waves in economic activity. Innovation surges during the transition between eras. The transition to the 5th Wave since the Indus- trial Revolution 200 years ago is now underway. Finally, price projec- tions are given both for the 5th Wave and 200 years from now on the assumption that a similar monetary measure to today will be then extant.