Nonfuel Minerals Projections – Why They Were Wrong

This article revisits global projections made in 1981of eight metallic and fertilizer minerals for the year 2000. The objectives here are to quantify the differences between the projected and observed levels of consumption for the year 2000 for eight of the 26 nonfuel minerals covered in the earlier study. An attempt is then made to attribute these (often) large differences to the major determinants of minerals demand — income, technological, regulatory and other policy changes, and changes in the recycling rates of the metallic minerals. The eight minerals covered are aluminum, copper, iron, mercury, nickel, phosphate rock, potash and tin. This summary article presents the actual population, gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita GDP changes from 1970 to 2000, compared with the projected rates for these important determinants of mineral use, along with the observed growth rates of minerals consumption for the eight nonfuel minerals included in this study. When the projections are compared with the observed global consumption levels for the year 2000, the differences range from +43 percent for nickel to +229 percent for potash.