Offshore Operation - Outline of Weather and Wave Forecasting Techniques.

Oil operators engaged in drilling on the Continental Shelf of Louisiana and Texas are in agreement that adverse weather and wave action are two of the greatest hazards to the safety and efficiency of their work. It was ami-pated when the offshore operations commenced that such would be the case, and experience to date has verified this assumption. Because atmospheric conditions and wave action involve tremendous amounts of energy it is highly unlikely that it will be possible to control any but the most localized weather and wave phenomena within the foreseeable future. Thus. as long as the offshore operations involve the movement of small craft and barges over exposed waters, and the transfer of personnel and heavy equipment from these craft to either fixed structures or larger craft at close quarters, the weather and wave problem will remain. Taking into consideration the persistence of the wave and weather problem and the improbability of achieving a direct solution, the Humble Oil & Refining Company, in planning its offshore campaign investigated the possibility of forecasting wave and weather conditions in order to provide warnings of dangerous conditions and increase efficiency in day-to-day planning of work. It was recognized that predictions of wave and weather conditions based on meteorology and oceanography, both geophysical sciences, are not 100 per cent accurate and application of forecasts in the offshore work was dependent on whether they provided information which was sufficiently greater in accuracy than the layman's guess to be worth the expenditure involved. During World War 11. meteorology and oceanography were used with success in reducing danger resulting from environmental conditions and increasing efficiency of operations exposed to the elements. This success was partially the result. of improvement in the scientific techniques involved and the procurement and distribution of observational data, and partially due to the large scope of the military operations which meant that a reduction of losses of a relatively small percentage of the total cost amounted to a large figure expressed in terms of dollars. Since the offshore drilling involves an extremely large financial investment, it was considered that the experience of the Armed Services in successfully employing meteorology and oceanography might be duplicated in the oil industry. In addition. the oil industry's successful experience in utilizing seismology, geology, and terrestrial magnetism; all geophysical sciences, indicated that meteorology and oceanography, also of the family of geophysical sciences and sharing their scientific assets and liabilities, might be profitably put to use. Since the immediate problem involving the sciences of meteorology and oceanography in the offshore campaign is wave action, a program was inaugurated within the Humble Oil & Refining Company during June 1947. the purpose of which was to ascertain the applicability and limitations of wave forecasting in the offshore campaign. A summary of the effective wave forecasting techniques developed during the war was prepared in the form of a forecasting manual for the Continental Shelf off Grand Isle, Louisiana, by Bates and Glenn. After completion of this manual, experimental forecasts were prepared daily over a two-month period by Graham and Thompson to determine the accuracy of the forecasts. It was considered that the accuracy of the experimental forecasts justified a more extensive test under actual operating conditions in the offshore work and the firm of A. H. Glenn and Associates was set up under the sponsorship of the Humble Oil & Refining Company to work with the Humble Grand Isle District in providing forecasts of wave and weather conditions over a one-year period. This paper discusses the service now provided to the Grand Isle District, its applicability and limitations. TYPE OF FORECASTS REQUIRED It was apparent before the commence-mence of the forecasting service that a specialized type of forecast was required. Many of the weather elements of interest to the general public, such as rain and temperature, are of minor concern to offshore operators. On the other hand, such elements as wave height and wind speed and direction are of great concern in the offshore operations since variations in wave height of a few feet in the critical range divide safe from hazardous working conditions. To be of utility. a forecasting service for the offshore work must provide detailed forecasts of the elements which affect the operation. With this in mind, it was decided that forecasts would include the following information: average wave heights to the nearest foot, wind speeds within a range of approximately 5 miles per hour, and wind directions within 221 degrees. Since the procedure for forecasting these elements involves thorough analysis of weather data, it was decided to include a generalized forecast of weather conditions such as rain and cloud cover, although these are of secondary importance.