OFR-38-73 Accident Prediction Investigation Study - Investigation Objectives And Accident Prediction Techniques - Overview

The original work statement of this contract was entitles: 'A Accident Analysis Model for Use in Underground Coal Mines.' The contract was scheduled for a duration of 26 months and was to be in three phases: Phase I - Model Development, Phase II - Application of the Model, and Phase III - Installation, Monitoring and Evaluation of the Model. Alter three months in Phase I, it became apparent that much of the needed data for the model was nut available and could not be made available within the original study schedule. Proceeding as plumed would have resulted in a model of limited utility. Personnel from Theodore Barry and Associates and the Bureau discussed the problem in detail and mutually decided to utilize the majority of remaining funds to assist the Bureau in solving these data problems and develop a stronger ongoing capability for safety analysis within the Bureau. Both tie contractor and the bureau officials involved believed that this decision greatly enhanced the Bureau's ability to develop future accident prediction models, whose rigor would greatly exceed what was currently possible.