OFR-46(3)-81 Risk Analysis For Rock Slopes In Open Pit Mines - Final Technical Report - Part III - Reliability Analysis Of Rock Slope Stability

The innate variability of natural materials and processes causes uncertainty in the models representing the natural phenomena and uncertainty in estimating the parameters that are used in these models. Reliability analyses, in contrast to the traditional factor of safety approach, are well suited to a rational incorporation of uncertainty in design and exploration decisions. Probabilistic kinetic and kinematic analyses were developed and combined to form reliability analysis methods. With one method the reliability, i.e.) the probability of failure, of an individual 2-plane wedge in a slope can be determined. The other method is aimed at slopes with a single slope parallel set of joints. In each case two approaches were developed, an encompassing one relying on computer codes and a simplified or summary approach relying on charts or pocket calculator computation. A major contribution of these approaches is the treatment of joint persistance. Instead of having to assume a certain persistence, it is now possible to use exploration data on joint geometry and to include the persistence effect rigorously.