One Project, Two Discount Rates (891e694f-646e-464f-8ae9-d46af3cd55ea)

This paper addresses the valuation and development timing of an undeveloped mineral project. Traditional analysis has us developing the project immediately if its net present value (NPV) is positive. Option pricing theory finds that it is better to wait until the NPV of the property is significantly greater than zero before developing. Alternatively, when evaluating the development timing decision, we must calculate NPV using a higher "timing-adjusted" discount rate, and develop the property only if its NPV using this timing-adjusted discount rate is greater than zero. This paper uses option pricing ideas to convert this development timing advice into a more concrete and user-friendly decision rule: develop the project when its "development-timing NPV" is positive, this development-timing NPV being calculated using the normal discount rate.