Operations Research - Financial Analysis Applications in Mineral Exploration and Development

Exploration targets and results in the mining industry are commonly summarized in terms of tonnage and grade. Business appraisals require, as additional information, the expected profit or loss implied by the physical summay. The early incorporation of knowledge gained through financial analysis computations can provide a means for economically resolving many common exploration and development problems. Examples of such applications from the activities of exploration planning, reconnaissance, land acquisition, and development planning are presented. While prospecting for mineral deposits, geologists are frequently asked what they hope to find or have found. The response is usually descriptive, such as "50 million tons of 1% copper," and the economic implications are deferred until a capital investment decision is required. At that time, a financial analysis integrating the four analysis components is completed. These components are: 1) Tonnage and Average grade above cutoff grade 2) Capital and operating costs 3) Product value 4) Appropriate profit or loss accounting Close examination of these components reveals that there is no intrinsic reason for avoiding financial analyses at earlier stages in exploration, as long as the uncertainty of the estimate is realized. Tonnage and average grades are commonly estimated at early stages in exploration. For this component, the appropriate cutoff is the major uncertainty. Capital and operating costs are difficult to estimate before detailed quantitative information is available, but estimates useful for the types of applications pertinent to earlier exploration stages are possible. Product value estimates may or may not be difficult, depending on the pricing structure of the particular commodity. A simplified accounting procedure usually may be adopted without introducing any significant loss of validity. This paper describe some of the financial analysis applications which are pertinent during mineral exploration and deposit development. These applications lend additional insight during exploration planning, land acquisition, physical exploration, and development. The examples are oriented toward a hypothetical management investment policy which is based on a single criterion, a minimum 15% discounted cash flow rate of return. In reality, managements use multiple criteria. This simplification is convenient for purposes of presentation and does not invalidate the examples. Computers are useful, but not a requirement, for the applications described. The use of computers provides the results on a more timely basis at costs lower than equivalent manual computations. UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES AND ANALYSIS METHODS Data estimates are subject to uncertainty. The analyst may choose to assess this uncertainty by using one of two principles. Each principle has some advantages. The principle most commonly employed is "assumed certainty." Each financial analysis is based on one set of selected data, which may represent the average estimates, minimum expected conditions, etc. The critical data is identified by making successive calculations, varying the values used. Such studies, called sensitivity analyses, isolate the economic effect of various uncertainties, and guide the allocation of future efforts toward improving the overall accuracy of the analysis. A second principle, "assumed risk," examines the interactive effect of the current uncertainties by qualitatively assigning probability distributions to each data element. These probability distributions indicate the currently appraised chance that a given numerical value will prove to be true. The corresponding procedure, risk analysis, consists of processing many individual financial analyses, each analysis being based on randomly selected numerical values from the probabilistic distributions. The result is a numerical presentation of the uncertainty, but care must be exercised in the interpretation of results. The advantage of this procedure is the direct measurement of economic uncertainty caused by the interaction of uncertain estimates. Kennecott Copper Corp. has developed computer systems for accomplishing sensitivity and risk analyses.