Optimal ore blending given geological uncertainty

Brownfields geoscience measurement such as drilling and surface geophysics can be costly and it is often difficult to weigh the cost of data collection and processing against the value it unlocks at the time of extraction. This makes it difficult to prioritise geoscience expenditure and find the optimum intensity of geoscience activity across competing assets. There are multiple options for managing resource uncertainty and spatial variability through mine planning and resource engineering such as varying marketing strategy, adjusting stockpile or other infrastructure design and product blending. Consideration of these alongside increased data collection further complicates finding a comparable value of geoscience programs to determine the right blend of geoscience measurement and engineering controls. Concepts similar to Value of Information (VOI) analysis which is applied to strategic planning can be used to estimate the value of geoscience measurement and pit sequencing at tactical planning and operational timescales. This involves the quantification of resource uncertainty and prediction of how it will affect resource extraction. This paper outlines this process and demonstrates its use to prioritise geoscience at BHP Coal Assets. The value of infill drill programs in enabling operational stability is quantified and compared the value of engineering controls like increased stockpile capacity. This study supports that idea that the application of VOI methods to bulk mining at tactical time horizons has potential to inform geoscience planning and resource engineering not just separately, but as part of a unified strategy for managing resource uncertainty.