Option pricing: A new approach to valuing mining projects

"Option pricing is used in finance for valuing options to buy (or sell) shares at some future date because it provides a convenient framework for quantifying values subject to uncertainty. As one of the main sources of uncertainty in mining is the price (sales) of the metal, this approach can also be used for valuing mining projects.The first part of this paper reviews options and option pricing; the second part presents the approach developed by Brennan and Schwartz (1985) for using option pricing to value natural resources. Several applications of this methodology have been published; these are described. From a mining point of view, the assumptions made by Brennan and Schwartz are too simplistic. The weaknesses are discussed with a view to improving an apparently promising new way of assessing the value of projects. IntroductionThe collapse of the British merchant banking group, Barings, has highlighted the risks that can be incurred by speculators and arbitragers in the futures and options markets. But this negative attention on futures and options should not make us forget their positive aspects. They can provide producers and consumers of metals with more predictable sales prices. The introduction of the new traded average price options, TAPOS, by the London Metal Exchange in January 1997 is a response to this need. Equally important, the theory that the finance industry has developed for valuing options provides an interesting framework for valuing mineral projects as well. While this paper was being revised, the South African gold mining house, JCI, announced that it was using a methodology based on option pricing for valuing the mineral rights to deeplevel gold resources (see Box 1)."