Paley Report Series - No. 3 - Copper, Lead, And Zinc - Predictions And Experience

Attempting to analyze a 25-year forecast after less than a third of the time has elapsed may seem premature. The President's Materials Policy Com- mission's report necessarily painted with a broad brush and made no claim for pinpoint accuracy in its predictions. More importantly for present purposes, it made no attempt to predict the detailed courses of production and consumption during the period forecasted. Several statistical highs and lows may very well lie between now and 1957, so comparing recent figures with points taken from the report on a straight-line basis would be illogical. Moreover, the report assumed that the general trend of consumption-domestic and foreign-would be upward. Contrarily, domestic figures were lower in 1957 than in 1950. Therefore, to project curves from 1950 through 1957 leads to conclusions that are probably false. Many in the industry would feel more uncertain about forecasting 1975 domestic conditions now than they would have been in 1950, even though nearly a third of the 25 years has elapsed. In making comparisons, several statistical problems are encountered. The Paley report figures for 1950 were estimated in several cases and corrected figures vary as much as 10 pct. For example, the report placed 1950 lead consumption at 800,000 tons, whereas actual consumption was 885,000 tons. Obviously, in comparing more recent figures with the report's projections, adjustments must be made for positions taken in error from the start. Over the long pull, such discrepancies will probably be insignificant, but they must be noted in comparing short-term changes.