Past And Future Cycles Of Copper: Regional And Global

The degree to which copper will continue to be in an integral part of the world economy in the future will depend largely on the dynamics of global economic development, the primary and secondary copper resource stock, technological change, and potential environmental constraints. We have characterized the copper cycle of 1994 for all of Earth's regions and for the planet itself (T. Graedel et al., Environmental Science & Technology, 38, 1242-1252, 2004) and recently updated that cycle to year 2000. In this paper, we compare various features of the 1994 and 2000 cycles. The three largest-using regions, Asia, Europe, and North America, all increased their absolute rate of copper use between 1994 and 2000, and all increased the per-capita rate of copper use as well. Globally, the use of copper increased by about 32%, from 11.7 to 15.3 million metric tons, while population increased by only 8%. Various changes are seen in scrap trade, finished products trade, and other parameters of the cycle. We conclude by considering how the rates of technological change and growth in demand, especially in Asia, may influence the copper cycle in the years ahead.