Petroleum Economics - Postwar Inventories of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products in the United States (T. P. 1870, Petr. Tech., May 1945)

With petroleum consumption declining temporarily after V-J day, the oil industry is urged to use this period as a kind of stopgap to rebuild its war-depleted inventories and help cushion the effect of this decline on producers and refiners. Higher inventories should be reestablished, since recent experiences have indicated that, by and large, the present inventories of crude oil are too low even with the tremendous current production available. The following analysis indicates that inventory levels could be built up to about 490,000,000 bbl. by the end of 1947, an increase of about 40,000,000 bbl. over the reported stock estimated for the war's end. If at the end of the war the military have some 20,000,000 bbl. on hand, this inventory will either be resold to the industry or certain demands that have been assumed to be met by industry will be supplied out of these military stocks, which would leave about 20,000,000 bbl. (net) to be built up from current production. For stock rebuilding the industry could use 10,000,000 bbl. of crude plus 10,00,000 bbl. of products, totaling 20,000,000 bbl. If this were spread over a year, this would mean 55,000 bbl. a day. By analyzing the average inventories held in a year with the total quantity of goods handled during the year, the following study and tables indicate how far the inventories should increase in the immediate postwar period. Introduction For the period immediately following V-J day, most of the petroleum economists have forecast a considerable decline in the total consumption of petroleum and its products in the United States. This will be caused by the elimination of most of the military demands and the inability of civilians to immediately replace automobiles, burners, etc., and thus increase their requirements to make up for the military decline. When the automobile industry has been back on full production for two or three years, civilians will be able to consume much larger quantities of gasoline. Delay in the manufacture of new oil burners and the time it takes to construct new homes, adds up to the same story for distillate fuels. In reviewing this outlook, the question has arisen whether the petroleum industry should not use this period of lower consumption as a kind of stopgap to rebuild its war-depleted inveritories and help cushion the effect on producers and refiners of this sudden drop in requirements. Some persons have indicated that hundreds of thousands of barrels a day could be used for this purpose extending over a year or more. Refineries will be in existence, which could run over 5,000,000 bbl. of crude oil a day and crude-oil production might be running 600,000 to 700,000 bbl. a day above the demands now forecast for the period after V-J day. Reasons for. Making Inventories In order to plan intelligently for this period, the petroleum industry should determine the needs for the establishment of higher inventories for crude and petroleum products than have been carried during the war. The reasons for trying to make such a determination are as follows: