Petroleum Economics - Significance of Declining Productivity Index (T. P. 1872, Petr. Tech., July 1945)

Declining Productivity Index, as considered herein, is a productivity index that has a substantially and consistently decreasing value when measured over a period of a few hours. If not recognized, it may be interpreted as representing an unsettled or unstable condition in a producing well. It forms the basis of a number of predictions as to future performance compared with the performance of wells in which the productivity index does not decline. The nost important of these are that: (I) the rate of oil production will decline more rapidly, (2) the gas-oil ratio will usually increase abnormally, (3) the amount of water ultimately produced will be negligible, if any, (4) stop-cocking will increase current production and decrease gas-oil ratio. When such relative well performance is indicated, it follows that certain reservoir performance and operating practices may be anticipated: (I) disappointing recovery, (2) longer natural flow, (3) no active water drive, (4) better evaluation of acidizing, shooting and reworking, (5) intermittent operation of wells, (6) smaller pumping equipment required. It is significant that the basis of these important predictions is bottom-hole pressure tests that can be made immediately after completion of the wells. Introduction "'Productivity index" is the number of barrels of oil produced per day per pound per square inch of differential pressure between the reservoir and the bottom of the well. "Declining Productivity Index," as considered herein, is a productivity index that has a substantially and consistently decreasing value when measured over a period of a few hours. Productivity index can be determined only when the rate of production can be stabilized. In most wells the rate of production and bottom-hole pressure are easily stabilized to give a constant productivity index for a period of many hours. A few produce so erratically as to preclude probability of an acceptable test in the usual sense. A satisfactory productivity index can be determined in some wells only by gauging the production accurately by hours, measuring the bottom-hole pressure continuously, and from these data calculating the productivity index for successive hours. Such figures frequently will have a decreasing value—that is, a declining productivity index—and when plotted on double. logarithmic cross-section paper with productivity index as ordinate and time as abscissa will be a straight-line curve. The angle between the curve and the abscissa is referred to as the rate of decline. Declining productivity index may appear to be the result of change in permeability to oil due to decreasing saturation of oil and increasing saturation of gas in the reservoir. It is possible that such is in fact the cause, but if so, more is involved than merely relative saturation of oil and gas. This seems evident because the rate of decline in productivity index is substantially the same regardless of the pro-