Petroleum Economics - Various Aspects of Oil-stock Prices

Numerous contradictory statements have been made in the past regarding the importance of the seasonal influence of demand for motor fuel on prices of oil securities. It has often been said that the time to buy oil securities is in the spring, or just prior to the heavy consuming season for gasoline. The fallacy of this argument is brought out in the following paragraphs. Seasonality of Oil-security Prices The indexes used in this paper as indicators of prices of oil securities and general industrials are those compiled by Standard Statistics Co. The oil producing and refining stock index includes 14 representative petroleum companies, while the all-industrials index is made up of 347 issues. All figures are stated as relatives, with 1926 = 100. The primary basis of the index, and one that gives a good weighting of the relative importance of the company within the industry, is the total market value of the stock issue outstanding; i.e., the market price times the number of shares outstanding. Adjustments are made for the addition or elimination of issues from the group index, for stock dividends, split-ups, stock rights, et cetera. At the present time the oil producing and refining index includes the following companies: Atlantic Refining Co., Consolidated Oil Corporation, Continental Oil Co., Gulf Oil Corporation, Humble Oil & Refining Co., Ohio Oil Co., Royal Dutch Co., Shell Union Oil Corporation, Socony-Vacuum Oil Co., Standard Oil Company of California, Standard Oil Co. (Indiana), Standard Oil Co. (New Jersey), Texas Corporation, Union Oil Company of California. In calculating the seasonal for oil-security prices several periods have been selected as indicat,ive of major changes in the industry, as follows: 1. 1918 through 1936. This gives an over-all picture of the industry during the motor-vehicle, motor-fuel era. 2. 1927 through 1936. This period includes the control stages, both voluntary and coercive. 3. 1927 to September, 1933. This is the pre-code period of control.