Petroleum Economics - World Consumption of Petroleum and Its Substitutes in 1942 (Petr.Tech., May 1943)

Since the entry of the United States into global war, virtually all data and information necessary for compiling figures on world petroleum consumption have become unavailable. This situation undoubtedly will continue until the world petroleum industry can return to a peacetime basis. During the past 10 years, the authors, by publishing annual estimates of .world consumption, have attempted to emphasize the importance of a yearly world-wide survey of petroleum supply and demand. It is beconling more and more evident that statistics for the United States alone can no longer give a comprehensive idea of the state of the petroleum industry, even within the United States itself. Therefore, when conditions in the industry again become normal, it is the hope of the authors that those bureaus equipped to do so will carry forward the study of petroleum supply and demand on a world-wide basis. Enough data and information are available, however, to attempt a rough estimate of world output of crude petroleum and petroleum substitutes for 1942, which to some extent may reflect the trend of world consumption. This estimate by countries, as compared with the output in 1941, is shown in Table I. The world production of crude petroleum and petroleum substitutes for 1942 is estimated at 2,208,000,000 bbl., or a decrease of 171,000,000 bbl. under 1941. Crude production is believed to have decreased by about 200,000,000 bbl., (about 9 per cent); while petroleum substitutes increased by 28,500,000 bbl., (nearly 20 per cent). The decline of crude output in the United States is estimated at 19,000,000 bb1.—less than 2 per cent; while that in foreign countries is estimated at 180,000,000 bbl., or more than 20 per cent. The marked decline abroad is due largely to losses in Venezuela and Colombia, where the lack of ocean transportation became the controlling factor, and in the East Indies and Burma, where military invasion brought about the destruction of the fields. The production of petroleum substitutes in 1942 apparently reached a new high figure of 7.5 per cent of the total world petroleum output. The important features of petroleum production outside of the United States are the changes that have taken place during the year in the supply of the Axis countries. In Japan the output for 1941 was estimated at 8,800,000 bbl., 5,500,000 of which were petroleum substitutes. It is believed that the output of synthetic oils during 1942 substantially increased, raising the total interior production of Japan to nearly 10,-ooo,ooo bbl. Also, during 1942 Japanese armed forces gained possession of oil fields having a normal peacetime output of about 78,000,000 bbl. per year. The production of these areas for 1942 is estimated at some 23,000,000 bbl., which indicates that Japan is now getting at least 33,000,000 bbl. a year, which exceeds by 8,000,000 bbl. Its