Platinum experts predict demand could reach 93 t (3 million oz) despite price fluctuations

For the third successive year it appears that demand for platinum will exceed supplies of newly-mined metal, forecasts Johnson Matthey in its "Platinum 1987 Interim Review." Based on data available at the end of August 1987, Johnson Matthey estimates that western world demand for platinum could exceed 93t (3 million oz) for the first time ever in 1987. Given a likely increase in demand of 4.3t to around 94t (140,000 oz to around 3.02 million oz), up by about 5% over 1986, there would be a 1.8- to 2.2-t (60,000- to 70,000-oz) shortfall in 1987 supply. South African mines enjoying undisrupted production last year after strikes affected Impala's output in 1986. The rate of increases in western world supplies, though, has probably not kept pace with the growth in demand. A downturn in US demand for platinum was counterbalanced by substantially increased purchases from Japanese and Western European consumers of the metal. Total imports of platinum into Japan in 1987 may have reached a record level of 45t (1.45 million oz). The largest source of demand for platinum remains its use in autocatalysts US and Japanese auto manufacturers reduced their platinum purchases in the wake of falling car production. Therefore, a small decline in overall 1987 sales of perhaps 780 kt (25,000 oz) was expected in 1987. Western European demand, however, rose strongly as a result of increased output. The spread of exhaust emission control regulations has sharply boosted the number of cars equipped with three-way catalysts containing platinum and rhodium. Western European auto makers probably needed 5.6t (180,000 oz) of platinum last year, a 50% increase over 1986. The jewelry industry, the second largest user of platinum, increased its offtake of platinum in 1987. Japan, the key to the jewelry industry's consumption of platinum, could absorb 24.8 to 26.4 (800,000 to 850,000 oz) in 1987, compared with 23t (740,000 oz) in 1986. Platinum has wide and diverse applications in industry. Other major users are the chemical, glass, electronics and petroleum industries. They were expected to increase their aggregate demand by about 1.8t (60,000 oz), or 11% in 1987. Investment demand for small platinum bars and coins of up to 311g (10 oz) dropped back in relatively inhospitable conditions. This, after rapid increases in recent years and a surge in US demand in 1986. However, Japanese investors purchasing bars weighing 500g or 1 kg (16 to 32 oz), and considered more speculative, recovered last year. Over the first eight months of 1987, platinum performed strongly on the open market with average prices well up from 1986 in dollar terms. But the increase was less marked where measured in sterling or yen. Platinum ad¬vanced by $3.70/g ($115 per oz) between Jan. 1 and mid-September with the average price having been surpassed only in the heady days of 1980. Johnson Matthey believes that supply and demand appear likely to keep more or less in step on a gently rising path. The recent open market volatility will continue with prices fluctuating widely over short periods. Writing in mid-September, and basing its view on the tangible evidence of platinum's price fall since the review was written, the company's assessment of price prospects is unchanged. Demand for platinum remains strong all-round. In October, imports of platinum into Japan were exceptionally high. And in the US and Japan there was a marked resurgence of demand from private investors. Although market sentiment may have been influenced in part by the news of several potential new platinum mines in South Africa, the full effects of these prospects on supply, even if they were all to materialize, would not be felt before the early-mid 1990s, Johnson Matthey said. According to the review, no radical change in platinum supplies is discernible in the near-term. Incremental growth from South Africa can be expected as the major producers continue to make the most of their existing resources. The Soviet Union may be keener to sell than it appeared earlier in 1987, especially if prices hold up, but a substantial increase is improbable. Canadian supplies are not capable of much variation from present levels. The palladium-rich Stillwater mine will make a modest contribution. Referring to the investment market, Johnson Matthey concluded that despite this year's reduction in sales of small-denomination investment products, platinum does appear to have established itself with private investors. Bearing in mind how business multiplied in comparatively unfavorable conditions before 1986, it is reasonable to look for a resumption of growth once the climate improves.