Platinum: The view from South Africa

Introduction This article discusses the unique range of properties of platinum and its applications as a high technology metal. World reserves of this strategic and precious metal are confined mostly to South Africa and, to a far lesser extent, the Soviet Union. An analysis is given of past trends in world platinum output. The timepath is computed for the world platinum output rate, covering a period of more than 350 years. This is based on the postulate that the industrial conversion of a virgin resource progresses according to a Sigmoid curve. This computation is performed by means of a nonlinear, three-stage optimization model employing a multiform Sigmoid function. Finally, the price dynamics are examined. Platinum is the most important of the group of the platinum metals to which it gives its name. Other platinum group metals are iridium, osmium, palladium, rhodium, and rhutenium. The metals occur in nature in close association and are chemically very similar to each other. Three members of the group - platinum, iridium, and osmium - are the heaviest metals known to man. Platinum's density is 11% heavier than gold and about twice the weight of the same volume of silver or lead. Properties Platinum is a typical grayish-white metal. Its special properties were known 1000 years ago to the American Indian craftsmen of what is now Ecuador and Colombia. From those distant beginnings, platinum is now firmly established as the most precious and distinctive metallic element known to mankind. It is shown in Table 1, platinum has a unique wide range of physical, chemical, and mechanical properties including high melting point, resistance to chemical attack, high catalytic activity, mechanical strength, and malleability. These properties make it indispensable for use in many industries. Application Platinum is first and foremost a high technology metal. During the last few decades, fertile scientific minds searched for and developed widespread cost-effective uses for this precious metal. Its unique properties render it irreplaceable in many key industrial processes. Important major fields of application include: • protection of man's natural environment (pollution control), • defense, • fuel production, • fertilizer manufacture, • glass and glass fiber manufacture, • pollution-free energy generation - replacement of nuclear and fuel operated power plants, • electronics, • dentistry, • medicine, and • jewelry. Besides these industrial markets, platinum is increasingly finding a place in investment portfolios around the world as investors switch from gold and silver holdings to this relatively scarce and strategic commodity. Platinum has a growing popularity among private investors. This is being accelerated by the predicted "big crash" of the US dollar and its associated weak currencies, which American financial analysts are expecting towards the end of the decade. Figure 1 shows the demand for platinum in various applications throughout the western world in 1986. The total demand amounted to 88.6 t (97.6 st) of which autocatalyst usage accounted for 32.8 t (36 st) or 37%, the biggest share. Catalytic converter technology is increasingly centered on rhodium-platinum three-way catalysts. These catalysts are able to deal with all three pollutants - carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, and nitrogen oxides - in a single catalytic unit. The introduction of these three-way converters will result in a further steep rise in the platinum demand for autocatalysts. Among all the metals used in the antipollution devices for automobiles, platinum remains